SPRIIA study of persistent information
Prediction · Use

NOD · Burgers

A changing field. A shared viscosity.

Independent initial fields evolve under the same viscosity. The comparison also separates relational training from extra prediction updates.

3 distributionsID, viscous OOD, inviscid OOD
Motion preview
Burgers field trajectoryBurgers data: Zituo Chen · CC BY 4.0 · redrawn with RdBu_r. Source & changes
Across independent experiences

What persists.

Viscosity ν.

Across distinct realizations

What changes.

Independent initial fields.

Experience → prediction

The task.

Independent trajectory + recipient field.

→ One-dimensional field evolution.

Evaluated instance

The comparison.

Released NOD · relation-trained stage, then prediction-only continuation.

Controls. Released-default NOD; Random; continued NOD.

Interpreting the evidence

What stays fixed in the test.

One fixed SPRII continuation recipe is used across ID, viscous OOD and inviscid OOD. Viscosity probes and frozen-predictor donor interventions are measured at the same checkpoints.

What this setting establishes.

The fixed continuation endpoint has lower mean error than released-default NOD in all three distributions. Added-update controls are reported separately.

Scope of the evidence

Extra prediction updates matter: continued NOD has slightly lower OOD means than the SPRII continuation in the matched-update comparison. The displayed field is a released training trajectory, not a model prediction.

Full result record

Measurements and comparisons.

Reported results are kept with their own populations and conditions. Development, held-out and sealed comparisons remain separate.

01 / Study Table 1

Native Burgers prediction

Released manifest; 3 source seeds

Trajectory MSE × 10⁻³ ↓

Native Burgers prediction
MethodIDViscous OODInviscid OOD
Released-default NOD9.096 ± .5448.012 ± .81511.857 ± .628
SPRII (fixed continuation endpoint)8.999 ± .7987.487 ± .18311.510 ± .360

Bold identifies the fixed SPRII endpoint in the released-default comparison.

  • SPRII (fixed continuation endpoint)The endpoint includes extra prediction updates. Continued NOD has slightly lower OOD means under the matched-update comparison.

Means ± source SD. SPRII includes prediction-only continuation; released-default NOD has no added updates. In the matched-update control, continued NOD has slightly lower mean OOD errors: 7.408 and 11.488, versus SPRII’s 7.487 and 11.510.

02 / Study Table 9

Burgers prediction with added-update controls

Sources 1234/5678/9012; released ID, viscous OOD and inviscid OOD

Native trajectory MSE × 10⁻³ ↓

Burgers prediction with added-update controls
GroupTrackIDViscous OODInviscid OOD
Primary comparisonReleased-default NOD9.096 ± 0.5448.012 ± 0.81511.857 ± 0.628
Primary comparisonSPRII fixed endpoint8.999 ± 0.7987.487 ± 0.18311.510 ± 0.360
Matched additional-update controlsContinued NOD9.379 ± 0.3407.408 ± 0.13011.488 ± 0.215
Matched additional-update controlsRandom continuation9.538 (–)8.900 (–)11.503 (–)

Bold marks SPRII’s ID mean and continued NOD’s lower OOD means in the matched-update comparison.

The dashed rule separates the primary reference from the added-update controls.

  • Primary comparisonThe same SPRII endpoint is compared against continued NOD below. Three-source paired intervals for the released-default differences include zero.

Means ± sample SD over three sources; Random’s source SD was not supplied. SPRII-minus-released-default paired-source 95% t intervals (MSE ×10⁻³; n=3, df=2) are ID [−2.472,2.277], viscous OOD [−2.982,1.932], and inviscid OOD [−2.783,2.091]. Continued NOD has slightly lower OOD means under matched added updates.

03 / Study Table 10

Burgers accessibility and fixed-predictor donor use — A. Organization and accessibility

Same 3 continuation checkpoints; donor assay: 11-system truth bank

B/W ratio; viscosity probe R²; wrong-minus-matched relative-L₂ error at H50

Burgers accessibility and fixed-predictor donor use — A. Organization and accessibility
TrackTrain B/WID R^2Viscous-OOD R^2
Continued NOD42.07 ± 14.740.924 ± 0.0060.975 ± 0.004
SPRII fixed endpoint24.58 ± 8.620.762 ± 0.1410.895 ± 0.116

Bold marks the higher viscosity-probe means of continued NOD.

  • Continued NODAccessibility and prediction rankings need not agree; the B/W statistic is a separate measure of organization.

Means ± source SD at the same continuation checkpoints used for prediction. B/W uses each model’s training-standardized latent distances. Ridge probes fit training data only; ID and viscous OOD are separate populations. Accessibility does not establish predictive use.

04 / Study Table 10

Burgers accessibility and fixed-predictor donor use — B. Fixed-predictor donor substitution

Same 3 continuation checkpoints; donor assay: 11-system truth bank

B/W ratio; viscosity probe R²; wrong-minus-matched relative-L₂ error at H50

Burgers accessibility and fixed-predictor donor use — B. Fixed-predictor donor substitution
TrackH=50 penalty95% interval
Continued NOD0.13310[0.06729,0.21265]
SPRII fixed endpoint0.12753[0.06538,0.20405]

Bold marks each model’s own wrong-donor penalty, not a ranking between penalties.

  • Continued NODPositive penalties show donor dependence through each fixed predictor. Only three source fits contribute to the descriptive intervals.

Donor substitution holds each predictor fixed. H50 wrong-minus-matched relative-L₂ intervals use 5,000 source/system bootstrap draws from the 11-system truth bank after averaging recipient cases. These descriptive intervals have only three fitted sources.